Thinking in Bets

Name: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
ISBN: 9780735216372

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Written byAnnie Duke

Former poker champion Annie Duke shows that life is more like poker than chess: you never have all the facts, and luck plays a part. She teaches how to judge decisions by how they were made, not just by how they turned out.

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Published2018
GenrePsychology
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01Don't judge a decision by its result
Good decisions can turn out badly and bad ones can get lucky. Duke calls the mistake of mixing them up “resulting”.
02Every decision is a bet
When you choose, you're betting on one possible future. Thinking this way makes you more honest about uncertainty.
03Ask “How sure am I?”
Put a rough confidence level on your beliefs. It makes it easier to change your mind when new facts arrive.
04Find a truth-seeking group
Surround yourself with people who will question your thinking kindly and honestly.
05Talk to your future self
Before deciding, imagine how you'll feel about the choice in ten minutes, ten months and ten years.
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Don't judge a decision by its result

Good decisions can turn out badly and bad ones can get lucky. Duke calls the mistake of mixing them up “resulting”. Pick one small way to put this into practice before tonight.

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