Annie Duke.

Annie Duke (born 1965) is an American author and former professional poker player who now writes and teaches about decision-making. She won a World Series of Poker bracelet in 2004. Her books include Thinking in Bets and Quit.

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Born: 1965
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Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Thinking in Bets

Annie Duke

Psychology · 2018

Thinking in Bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Former poker champion Annie Duke shows that life is more like poker than chess: you never have all the facts, and luck plays a part. She teaches how to judge decisions by how they were made, not just by how they turned out.

Three big ideas

Don't judge a decision by its resultGood decisions can turn out badly and bad ones can get lucky. Duke calls the mistake of mixing them up “resulting”.
Every decision is a betWhen you choose, you're betting on one possible future. Thinking this way makes you more honest about uncertainty.
Ask “How sure am I?”Put a rough confidence level on your beliefs. It makes it easier to change your mind when new facts arrive.

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